We now can see that the Corona pandemic has made an unprecedented impact on our lives at multiple levels and in many unexpected ways. This crisis will pass. But what comes next? It may be a blessing that our memories are short. We will undoubtedly return to some of our old habits, and our lives may look and feel much like what existed before Corona.
It’s still hard to imagine that the future will be the same as before. What needs to change?
We need to change our attitudes and our thinking.
We each have our challenges, hopes, and fears, but – before Corona – it was hard to imagine that a threat could shut down cities across the globe. We might have admitted, during some bourbon-infused conversation, that such disaster was possible, but we never considered it to be probable. The United States, this awesome country, wraps us in a warm blanket of perceived security. Are we taking too much for granted? Should this pandemic alter that perception?
Before Corona, most of us did not take survivalists seriously. As I am writing this, average Americans are stripping supermarket shelves and lining up to buy guns. Today, the survivalists now seem less extreme. The panic and fear surrounding this pandemic is dangerous. It presents the possibility that we all lose our minds and kill one another over the last roll of toilet paper.
We are fortunate that this pandemic has not given way to complete chaos. We should be thankful that many of us can be safe in our homes. Let’s be mindful of this. But what about the next time? The issue isn’t whether Corona should change attitudes; the issue is whether we finally will change our views as a result of Corona.
Pandemic and Risk Perception
Arguably, we did not take the risk of this pandemic seriously. As early as 1758, the islands in New York Harbor were used to quarantine people who arrived by ship. We even quarantined the Apollo 11 crew when they returned from the moon. However, over the years, the practice of quarantine gradually disappeared. Why stop?
It disappeared probably because of the perception that the risks of infection declined. But is that really true? We have very recently witnessed outbreaks of AIDS, Ebola virus, hantavirus, West Nile virus, SARS, prionic diseases, brucellosis, yellow fever, avian influenza, Lyme disease, legionella, botulinum, and anthrax (not to mention the possibility of bioterrorism). Even after Corona erupted, some groups felt the idea of quarantine, travel restriction, and border closures as an over-reaction to the risk.
Given experience, why have continued to discount the risk that travelers could introduce an infectious illness? Why do we generally discount risk?
Why do we discount risk?
Our thinking is influenced heavily by the past. We practically define intelligence as an ability to recognize patterns in experience and then apply those patterns to the future. A long time ago, one of our predecessors was burned by fire. This event developed into the theory that fire is good for cooking food, and it is bad for cooking your hand. That is intelligence: the ability to learn from the past and apply it to the future.
We will one day look back on Corona to evaluate the “what just happened.” We will rationalize causation and invent measures to prevent it from happening again. This is a good thing. However, it may not be enough because we tend to look at the past through rose-colored glasses.
Without a change in our thinking, we may not be prepared for the next pandemic or the next black swan event. Society tends to underestimate the risks that we face. While we may understand that the general population faces a risk, we are less likely to apply that risk to ourselves. It’s natural to think, “That’s not going to happen to me.” Whether this is due to simple denial, faith in government, faith in the Lord, optimism, or an assumption that we each have control over our lives, we still underestimate risk. This leads to a bias against incurring inconvenience to avoid risk.
When society considers implementing preventative measures, it weighs monetary costs and personal inconveniences against the perceived risk. As long as underestimate risk, we may not spend the money or effort to effect a robust program of prevention.
To be prepared for the future, we need a better understanding of risk.
We typically view risk from a gambling perspective. If the risk of loss is low, you can bet big. But gambling, or speculation, is not a robust life philosophy. Many aspects of life (life itself, for example) are not a game that we can play over and over again. Many risks in life threaten an unacceptable loss. Life presents many binary risks – you either survive, or it’s game over.
It’s time to set aside conventional wisdom. Even if, based on experience, we could say with mathematical certainty that only one in ten million travelers might have a disease that could wipe out half of our population, is it worth the risk to avoid some level of screening?
In addition to pandemics, we face all sorts of risks that present (if not game over) a serious downside such as a hurricane, tornado, torrential rain, contamination, war, wildfire, famine, cyberattack, commodity scarcity, food shortages, pollution, and disease. Some of these risks are independent, and some are inter-related. Some risks are global, some regional, and some personal. We have witnessed these events, but, like the virus, we have discounted those risks in our lives and business dealings.
What is the acceptable downside for catastrophic risk? How many lives can be lost? How many businesses can fail? How many people can find themselves without a home or livelihood? Do you want government to make that decision for you, or are you willing to consider – whatever government does – what you can do to better protect yourself?
Avoiding Armageddon
There’s no way to create a risk-free society. The issue is whether we, as a society, can make incremental moves to strengthen ourselves against an unknown and unpredictable future disaster.
If your present thinking focuses on how to minimize future viral threats, you’re missing the point. We must start working on ways to strength our social architecture against a myriad of challenges. There is no perfect solution, but there is always room for improvement. Forget about yesterday. Yesterday’s “best practices” did not help us avoid the pandemic. Even if we take action to insulate us from another Corona-type event, we may still be blindsided by an entirely different black swan event. It is a difficult concept, but we must prepare to defend against the unknown. Risk is abundant. Expect the unexpected. Don’t confuse something rare with something that does not happen. Forrest Gump is right, sh*t happens.
Black swan events do occur; they will occur, and (since the industrial revolution) have been occurring at an increasing rate. Although it sometimes feels like we live in mass confusion, our lives and businesses depend on a highly organized, complex, and interdependent society that is vulnerable to multiple points of attack. In the days of UNIVAC, nobody worried about cyber warfare. But as computers have become more integrated with our day-to-day lives, a network disruption could threaten financial markets, the banking system, our power grid, and my ability to binge-watch “Breaking Bad” on NETFLIX. Computer networks may have raised the quality of our lives, but our dependence on those systems has added risk. An innocent programming oversight raised hysteria over Y2K. There are countless threats (natural, human-made by accident, and human-made with bad intent) to just about every organized system in society – healthcare, transportation, food distribution, insurance, etc.
Our individual lives face very personal threats. While not on the scale of a pandemic, are we individually doing enough to protect our families, careers, health, and lifestyles? A parent’s heart attack may not be a national crisis, but it is a catastrophe for the family and may be bad news for a business.
We have so many levels of complex structural interrelationship that we cannot fully predict how a specific disruption may impact us. Acting based upon experience is not sufficient. How prepared are you for the unknown?
A new way of thinking.
This essay is not a sermon on the glass half full. It is a call to action. We each represent a fiber of society. If we strengthen ourselves and help to strengthen those whom we touch, we may strengthen the whole. I have confidence in your ability to do so. Now get to work.
If you can spare a moment to think beyond hand washing and social distancing, consider the aspects of your lives and business models that made you vulnerable to the quarantine. Now think beyond the virus and explore other possibilities that may threaten your world. How might your weaknesses be accessed? Share your thoughts with your families and business teams and invite disagreement. Turn that thinking into action.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former options trader turned scholar has written about management and decision making in the face of uncertainty. He advocates that security lies in making our society less fragile to large-scale disruptions. He uses terms like “antifragility” and “robustification.” The New York Times Book Review claimed that Taleb’s book, The Black Swan, was one of the most influential books written since World War II.
It’s time to change your way of thinking. Consider how what we don’t know may impact the future. W. Edwards Deming told us that we must not make all decisions based on what is visible and measurable because the most important factors are unknown or unknowable. As leaders, we must account for the unknown. We are here to lead our families, communities, and organizations into an uncertain future. People depend upon us for security. If you understand that black swan events are a part of life, then it is your duty to continually seek strategies to insulate your dependents from disruptions large and small. Do what you can to deal with black swan events – global and personal. In anticipation of a disaster, become better positioned to help others instead of needing help yourself.
It sounds like an impossibility. How can you possible defend against the unknown? The answer is simple – you can’t, not with complete certainty. However, you can do your best to move in a better direction. We each have a different walk through life. We each have gained a deep understanding of our homes, lifestyles, businesses, and affiliated organizations. Use that understanding. Probe your weaknesses. Explore ideas. Take action. Remain vigilant.
Conclusion
Don’t be naïve to think that we can depend upon a government bailout to get us through the next disaster. Don’t think of whether you can afford the costs of making your life and business more secure, think instead of whether you can afford not to.
Rethink your own priorities. De-emphasize short-term profits and keep looking long term.
Lasting change starts within.
